Autumn Budget 2026: What It Means for the Mortgage Market

The Chancellor delivered his Autumn Budget on 28 October, and our team has spent the time since working through what it really means for anyone buying, moving or remortgaging.

Our headline view: this was a stabilising Budget rather than a game-changer. It doesn’t make borrowing cheaper, but it removes uncertainty the market had been pricing in, and puts real support behind first-time buyers.

With changes still being announced and rates expected to rise, this is exactly the kind of market where a specialist broker and good advice are worth more than you’d expect.

The numbers that matter

How the Budget reaches your mortgage

The Budget doesn’t set mortgage rates, but it starts a chain that does. Government borrowing plans move gilt yields. Gilt yields feed into swap rates, which are lenders’ funding costs. And swap rates set the price of fixed-rate mortgages.

That’s why fixed rates have risen this year even though Bank Rate has held. Five-year swap rates have climbed more than a full point in twelve months as markets priced in stickier inflation. The effect was sharp: the number of fixed deals under 5% fell from 1,494 at the start of September to just 9 by 5 October.

Our take: the Budget passed the bond market’s test. Gilt yields edged lower and the Chancellor kept to the borrowing rules. That won’t bring rates down on its own, but it removes one source of upward pressure. The next big signal for pricing is the Bank of England on 5 November.

What it means for you

First-time buyers

The new Your First Home scheme offers a 20% government equity loan on new-build homes in England, from a 2.5% deposit and interest-free for five years. The first loans are expected from April 2027, and stamp duty relief for first-time buyers stays as it is.

Our take: the deposit has long been the biggest barrier, and this tackles it directly. It complements the low-deposit options some lenders have recently brought to market. Expect new-build demand to pick up from spring, with some buyers timing purchases around the launch.

Home movers

There was no change to stamp duty, after months of speculation that it could be cut or scrapped.

Our take: no change is good news here. Buyers who paused waiting for a stamp duty cut now know exactly what they’ll pay. The OBR expects sales to rise steadily, from around 1.2 million this year to 1.3 million by 2031: a recovering market, not a rush.

Remortgagers

Nothing changed directly, but the OBR expects the average rate across all outstanding mortgages to rise from 4% this year to around 5% by 2031.

Our take: this is where the market’s real pressure sits. Many borrowers are still coming off cheaper fixes taken out in earlier years. Planning six months ahead and comparing the whole market, not just your current lender’s offer, makes the biggest difference.

Landlords

Tax on rental income will rise to 24%, 44% and 49% for the relevant bands from April 2027, two points above what was already planned. Homes worth over £2m will also face a new council tax surcharge from April 2028.

Our take: a clear headwind, and the OBR expects it to push rents up over time. With 17 months’ notice, landlords have time to review their portfolios with their accountant, and one of our specialist brokers can look at the borrowing alongside them.

Three scenarios for rates

In September, three of the Bank of England’s nine policymakers voted to raise rates to 4%, and markets now expect a small rise on 5 November. Much of that is already built into fixed rates. Here’s how each path could play out.

What we’re watching

• 5 November: the Bank of England’s rate decision
• Swap rates: as inflation data lands through the winter
• End of December: pre-registration opens for Your First Home

Don’t forget protection

Mark Dickety, our Sales Manager, said: “A steady Budget is good news for anyone with plans to buy, move or remortgage. Certainty on stamp duty and new support for first-time buyers give people something solid to plan around. Rates are still the one to watch, so timing and good advice matter more than ever.

“Alongside your mortgage, it’s important to make sure you and your home are properly protected should anything unexpected happen. If your circumstances change, review your protection with one of our experienced brokers to make sure you have the right cover in place.”

Our view

This was a steady Budget, and steady is what the mortgage market needed. With policy settled, the outlook now rests on inflation and the Bank of England rather than the Treasury. For most borrowers, the deciding factors are timing and product choice, which is exactly where advice earns its keep.

Whether you’re buying your first home, moving, remortgaging or managing a portfolio, our team is here to help. Call us on 03454 500200, email hello@mortgagedecisions.com, or book a conversation with one of our brokers.

Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage.

This article is for general information only and is not financial or tax advice. Scenarios are illustrative, not forecasts. Figures correct as of 28 October 2026. Sources: HM Treasury Budget 2026, Office for Budget Responsibility, Bank of England, Rightmove, SwapRates.co.uk, Moneyfacts, Reuters.